Decision making process

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The decision making process begins several months ahead of the target season. Seasonal forecasts from the climate information provider are collated. These forecasts are then processed and used within the mortality model to generate excess mortality forecasts. These probabilistic mortality forecasts are then transferred to the users. Although there is a large amount of uncertainty in long-lead seasonal climate forecasts for Europe, these preliminary mortality forecasts can be used to take initial decisions. For example, allocating the necessary resources to prepare for any anticipated heat waves or cold spells while considering other contextual information. Just before the target season, additional, shorter range, sub-seasonal forecasts are used to refine the mortality forecasts and considered with updated contextual information. Finally, localised action plans are implemented ahead and during the heat wave/cold spell events, to protect vulnerable sectors of society.

Decision making process

Ensemble of seasonal forecasts of apparent temperature
Probabilistic prediction of excess mortality
Mortality predictions considered alongside other contextual information
Refine mortality prediction using monthly ensemble forecast and updated contextual information
Implement localised heat/cold health action plans to protect vulnerable sectors of society


CMTool is a climate driven mortality prediction tool, which aims to strengthen public health decision making ahead of extreme temperature events, such as heat waves and cold snaps across Europe.