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Probabilistic forecasts maps to show the probability of exceeding pre-defined thresholds of mortality, given extreme heat or cold events (see the figure below), will be provided to European level stakeholders via briefings and a website. This information will be communicated to local level decision makers via the WHO.


Figure 1. (a) Probabilistic map of exceeding emergency daily mortality threshold (75th percentile of daily mortality distribution, given temperatures greater than the comfort temperature in each location) using a mortality model driven with a sub-seasonal apparent temperature forecast ahead of the heat wave scenario (1-15 Aug 2003). (b) Corresponding observations for the same period. The graduated colour bar represents the probability of exceeding the mortality threshold (ranging from 0%, pale colours, to 100%, deep colours).



CMTool is a climate driven mortality prediction tool, which aims to strengthen public health decision making ahead of extreme temperature events, such as heat waves and cold snaps across Europe.