Risks assessed

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The prototype provides a science-based prediction scheme that quantifies the probability of exceeding a risk threshold in human mortality attributable to environmental temperatures. This approach intends to allow policy makers and public health agencies to activate all the protocols that are required in order to minimise the effects of temperature extremes on human individuals at the regional level in western Europe. These measures include:

  1. involvement of journalists, newspapers, radios, televisions and online media; 
  2. coordination of public health agencies and retirement centers for the elderly; 
  3. issue of governmental warnings to the general population, with recommendations on the prevention and treatment of related diseases;
  4. closer monitoring of old people living alone, which might be at higher risk;
  5. activation of additional temporary resources for social services;
  6. enable public spaces and buildings to host people living in low-quality apartments.

All these measures can be later analysed by comparing the incidence of the extreme event with previous episodes in which these measures have not been implemented.


CMTool is a climate driven mortality prediction tool, which aims to strengthen public health decision making ahead of extreme temperature events, such as heat waves and cold snaps across Europe.